The most obvious potential mismatch in Super Bowl LVI is the Cincinnati Bengals’ rude line versus the Los Angeles Rams’ defensive front – and it’s not close. The basic measures seem rather gloomy.
Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow took a league-high 51 sacks during the regular season behind a line ranked 30th in ESPN’s pass block win rate. During a divisional round win over the Tennessee Titans, he was released nine times, and the Kansas City Chiefs placed him at 40.5% of his losses in the AFC title game, according to PFF. Jonah Williams, the Cincinnati o-Lineman with the highest pass block rating in PFF, ranks only 57th out of 136 players who qualify based on playing time.
The Rams, meanwhile, led the league in pass rush recidivism rate. Aaron Donald is one of the best central defenders in NFL history, but he is also one of four Los Angeles defenders-of Miller, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo and Leonard Floyd are the others-who have received a pass mark of 72 or higher this PFF Season, including the playoffs.
If Burrow is running for his life like Patrick Mahomes did last year in the Super Bowl, or if he’s constantly broken like Cam Newton did in Super Bowl 50, you’ll know why.
But here’s the thing: Burrow and the Bengals are in the Super Bowl, and they’ve met so far bypassing their passport protection loopholes. The bag seems constant automatically collapses from Burrow, but he still managed to play with usual coolness. And Cincinnati’s entire offense backfired when it needed to. The question is whether the Bengals can handle what the Rams can bring.
Donald is a one-man Wrecker game. Not only did he outsmart every central defender by beating his pass blockers in less than 2.5 seconds, he did it five percentage points more often than anyone else (26 percent). Donald has also seen more double plays than anyone else – no matter where those Pass-Rushers were committed – and it still doesn’t matter. His literary game is almost off the charts. I mean, it almost seems wrong:
Donald doesn’t just settle inside. It has been positioned 417 times by PFF to the right or left of the center. But he also played 310 Snaps on the far left, 285 on the far right, plus 96 on the far right outside and 79 on the far left outside. Cincinnati’s defense needs to know where he is, but he could be anywhere. And accounting for Donald is part of what makes Miller, Floyd and Okoronkwo thrive.
What can the Bengals do? Their game plan against the chiefs in the AFC Championship provides some clues. Despite the constant pressure – and despite the frequent double teams wideout Ja’Marr Chase saw-Burrow was released only once and struck out only four times. He neutralized Kansas City’s onslaught with quick passes, as well as a stronger dose of throws and game screens.
During the regular season and in his first two series wins, Burrow threw screens only 8.6% of the time and averaged 5.4 yards per attempt on those passes, per PFF. Against Kansas City, Burrow increased that total to 14.3 percent. He was 4-for-6 for 63 yards, including that 41-yard touchdown throw to running back Samaje Perine, who threw Cincinnati back from a 21-3 kickoff challenge:
Quick passes are a strength for Burrow-and an effective foil for the Rams’ pass rush. Burrow averages 7.2 yards per attempt by releasing the ball in under 2.5 seconds, the second-best total in the league, by Statistic Next-gen.et the NFL has 6.8 yards per attempt, with QBs providing quick passes, the third-worst number in the NFL. Donald and CO. can’t cause Chaos if the QB no longer has the ball in hand.
Burrow didn’t use much play for most of the season-only 19.3% of his Dropbacks during the regular season and the first two rounds of the offseason by PFF. But against the chiefs, Burrow play-faked 28.6% of the time.
Like at LSU University, Burrow likes to throw empty backfield: 23.7% of his dropbacks, according to Sharp Football’s Dan Pizzuta, with only the Rams’ Matthew Stafford (29.1%) working more often in empty spaces. This offers the advantage of having up to five receiving targets, but it can also allow Burrow to be more exposed with fewer pass protections. The increased use of game actions and screens can dampen the noise of passes by holding down one or two extra bodies to block or even flake before releasing them into a route.
All this is obviously easier said than done. The Rams have an All-World cornerback in Jalen Ramsey who can possibly be isolated against Chase, and they can sometimes use five down-LINE to force the Bengals to absorb their virus with their protection calls. As counterintuitive as it sounds, Burrow has found ways to keep winning despite numerous hits and relentless pressure. He only has to fix it to regain a champion, but this challenge is also more impressive than any other he has faced so far.
